Economics: Research Guide

Effectuation theory seeks to explain how entrepreneurs act under Knightian uncertainty through non-predictive control. However, the mechanism through which this control operates remains unclear, and the theory has been criticized for being akin to a random walk. This paper addresses this issue by integrating effectuation theory with a design science perspective on entrepreneurship. We conceptualize venture creation as the iterative design of an artifact whose structure evolves through decomposition and recomposition. Drawing on the property of near-decomposability, we propose that the artifact provides the structural continuity linking successive entrepre-neurial actions while enabling local..

The rise of AI-driven technologies, particularly generative AI (GenAI) like ChatGPT, is transforming customer service in hospitality and tourism sectors. These systems enhance user experiences by offering real-time, personalized support and 24/7 assistance. Yet, as sustainability becomes a key factor in travel decisions, consumers increasingly face information overload due to the abundance of eco-friendly options. This study examines how GenAI can alleviate this cognitive strain in sustainability-focused tourism contexts. Across two experiments (i.e., one on trip planning and another on on-site shopping), the findings show that more advanced GenAI tools significantly reduce information overl..

The rise of AI-driven technologies, particularly generative AI (GenAI) like ChatGPT, is transforming customer service in hospitality and tourism sectors. These systems enhance user experiences by offering real-time, personalized support and 24/7 assistance. Yet, as sustainability becomes a key factor in travel decisions, consumers increasingly face information overload due to the abundance of eco-friendly options. This study examines how GenAI can alleviate this cognitive strain in sustainability-focused tourism contexts. Across two experiments (i.e., one on trip planning and another on on-site shopping), the findings show that more advanced GenAI tools significantly reduce information overl..

Using large-scale high-granularity data from a food delivery platform and granular pollution and weather information, we study how PM2.5 fluctuations affect riders’ absenteeism, productivity, and accidents. Exploiting exogenous pollution variation from inverse boundary layer height, we find that higher pollution increases absenteeism for all workers and raises delivery times and accident rates only among (e-)bike riders, who must exert physical effort while working. Affected workers compensate productivity losses by working longer hours. Monetary incentives mitigate the effects on absenteeism but do not offset the decline in productivity and appear to exacerbate accident risk.

Using large-scale high-granularity data from a food delivery platform and granular pollution and weather information, we study how PM2.5 fluctuations affect riders’ absenteeism, productivity, and accidents. Exploiting exogenous pollution variation from inverse boundary layer height, we find that higher pollution increases absenteeism for all workers and raises delivery times and accident rates only among (e-)bike riders, who must exert physical effort while working. Affected workers compensate productivity losses by working longer hours. Monetary incentives mitigate the effects on absenteeism but do not offset the decline in productivity and appear to exacerbate accident risk.

Envy is commonly labeled a negative emotion, yet research distinguishes between benign envy, which motivates self-improvement, and malicious envy, which motivates hostility and derogation. Although both forms are unpleasant, they differ in their motivational consequences. Emotional intelligence (EI) has been linked to adaptive emotional functioning, but little is known about whether ability-based emotion regulation predicts the motivational orientation of envy. In a community sample of French adults (N = 442), we examined whether performance-based emotion regulation ability, assessed within the QEg (Generalized QEPro Ability Measure of Emotional Intelligence) model, predicted benign and mali..

Traditional calibration methods in hydrological models result in parameter values that can compensate for aleatory uncertainties in model forcings (such as rainfall, temperature, evapotranspiration, or pesticide application dates). Ignoring aleatory uncertainty can lead to subsequent model simulations being less reliable for taking operational decisions or predicting hazardous events (e.g., peaks of water pollution or floods). Robust calibration can better handle these uncertainties, but usually requires extensive model simulations, making it impractical for physically based environmental models. To overcome these issues, we use a new metamodeling approach using stochastic emulation. This me..

In Open Veins of Latin America (1971), Eduardo Galeano argued that colonial interventions in Latin America organised the regional economy around raw material exports and drained the continent of valuable resources and labour, producing conditions of underdevelopment. Scholars have argued that this dynamic continues today, where the suppression of prices and input costs in peripheral regions enables the global North to appropriate resources and value through ‘unequal exchange’. Building on this analysis and grounded in the Marxist tradition of dependency theory, this study empirically assesses Latin America's position with respect to unequal exchange of natural resources and labour embodi..

This study investigates the domestic transmission of inflation by examining how price dynamics interact within the Consumer Price Index (CPI) in the US, the UK, and Japan over the period January 1988 (January 1993 for the US) to March 2025. Using a time-varying parameter vector autoregression (TVP-VAR) connectedness framework, we quantify the extent and evolution of inflation interdependencies across disaggregated price series. The results show that inflation is driven not only by external shocks and policy conditions but also by endogenous interactions within the price system. Inflation transmission remains moderate on average but intensifies during periods of elevated inflation, indicating..

In Open Veins of Latin America (1971), Eduardo Galeano argued that colonial interventions in Latin America organised the regional economy around raw material exports and drained the continent of valuable resources and labour, producing conditions of underdevelopment. Scholars have argued that this dynamic continues today, where the suppression of prices and input costs in peripheral regions enables the global North to appropriate resources and value through ‘unequal exchange’. Building on this analysis and grounded in the Marxist tradition of dependency theory, this study empirically assesses Latin America's position with respect to unequal exchange of natural resources and labour embodi..

How does trade fragmentation affect inflationary pressures? What is the response of monetary policy needed to sustain inflation at target? To address these questions, we develop a two-sector, small open-economy model that features imperfect international risk-sharing and household heterogeneity, capturing both the supply-side and demand-side effects of fragmentation. In the model, fragmentation takes the form of import-price increases or a decline in tradable-sector productivity. The sign and magnitude of its impact on inflationary pressures, and the appropriate policy response, depend not only on the direct effect of higher import prices or lower productivity on supply but also, crucially, ..

The primary objective of this paper is to explore the determinants of the level of, and trends over time in, Japan's household saving rate, with emphasis on the impact of the age structure of the population, and to make projections about future trends therein. The paper finds that Japan's household saving rate has not always been high either absolutely or relative to other countries, contrary to popular belief, and that, if we confine ourselves to the postwar period, it was only during the 25-year period from 1961 to 1986 that it exceeded 15%. Past and future trends in Japan's household saving rate can largely be explained by changes in the age structure of her population, but declines in th..

The European Carbon Border Adjustment Mechanism (CBAM) has the dual objective of preventing carbon leakage and encouraging adoption of low-carbon technologies abroad. Yet, pursuing both objectives with the same mechanism results in incomplete carbon leakage protection unless global carbon prices converge. As the current geopolitical situation makes rapid convergence seem unlikely, an extension of free allowance allocation is being discussed for affected sectors. This would, however, mute most carbon pricing incentives and reduce carbon pricing revenues. This paper argues that until progress on global carbon pricing is reached, the CBAM should be reformed to use standardized values rather tha..

The European Carbon Border Adjustment Mechanism (CBAM) has the dual objective of preventing carbon leakage and encouraging adoption of low-carbon technologies abroad. Yet, pursuing both objectives with the same mechanism results in incomplete carbon leakage protection unless global carbon prices converge. As the current geopolitical situation makes rapid convergence seem unlikely, an extension of free allowance allocation is being discussed for affected sectors. This would, however, mute most carbon pricing incentives and reduce carbon pricing revenues. This paper argues that until progress on global carbon pricing is reached, the CBAM should be reformed to use standardized values rather tha..

Overemployment – working more hours than desired – affects nearly one-third of European workers, yet its consequences remain understudied. Using data from the German Socio-Economic Panel (SOEP, 1984-2019, N = 43, 570) and individual fixed-effects models with leads and lags, we examine whether overemployment is associated with a deterioration in wellbeing and health, and whether potential adverse impacts persist as long as the overemployment state continues or whether people get used to working long hours. We find that overemployment is associated with a substantial decline in mental health, with impacts that intensify rather than attenuate over time. Specifically, the SF-12 mental health..

When do firms trade technology for market access? Theories of foreign investment typically frame host state bargaining power in terms of domestic characteristics like market size. This article examines how the structure of global markets in which firms are embedded and the inter-firm competition this generates shape firm-state bargaining over technology in ways not reducible to host state attributes. I argue that as the number of firms in an industry rises and global market shares become less evenly divided among them, weak market players face strong incentives to transfer technology in return for access to new markets. In this context, host states can “divide and conquer” investors to s..

Overemployment – working more hours than desired – affects nearly one-third of European workers, yet its consequences remain understudied. Using data from the German Socio-Economic Panel (SOEP, 1984-2019, N = 43, 570) and individual fixed-effects models with leads and lags, we examine whether overemployment is associated with a deterioration in wellbeing and health, and whether potential adverse impacts persist as long as the overemployment state continues or whether people get used to working long hours. We find that overemployment is associated with a substantial decline in mental health, with impacts that intensify rather than attenuate over time. Specifically, the SF-12 mental health..

Overemployment – working more hours than desired – affects nearly one-third of European workers, yet its consequences remain understudied. Using data from the German Socio-Economic Panel (SOEP, 1984-2019, N = 43, 570) and individual fixed-effects models with leads and lags, we examine whether overemployment is associated with a deterioration in wellbeing and health, and whether potential adverse impacts persist as long as the overemployment state continues or whether people get used to working long hours. We find that overemployment is associated with a substantial decline in mental health, with impacts that intensify rather than attenuate over time. Specifically, the SF-12 mental health..

This paper investigates estimation and inference for average treatment effects in completely randomized experiments when researchers observe potentially many covariates. Within Neyman’s (1923) design-based framework, allowing the number of covariates to grow more slowly than the sample size, we demonstrate that a cross-fitted regression adjustment estimator–adapted from Aronow and Middleton (2013)–exhibits more favorable asymptotic properties than existing alternatives, such as Lin’s (2013) regression adjustment estimator and the bias-corrected estimator of Lei and Ding (2021). For inference, we derive the first- and second-order terms in the stochastic expansions of regression-adjus..

Hot-spring resources are abundant in Japan, yet they have not consistently generated broad-based regional prosperity. This study examines the conditions under which hot-spring cities can evolve from tourism-dependent destinations into higher-value urban service clusters. It compares Beppu (Japan) with Bath (UK) and Vichy (France), two benchmark spa cities included among the Great Spa Towns of Europe. Using a qualitative comparative case study supported by descriptive statistical evidence and location quotient profiles, the study shows that outcomes depend less on the volume of hot-spring resources than on institutional coordination, brand credibility, and the integration of wellness, heritag..

Overemployment – working more hours than desired – affects nearly one-third of European workers, yet its consequences remain understudied. Using data from the German Socio-Economic Panel (SOEP, 1984-2019, N = 43, 570) and individual fixed-effects models with leads and lags, we examine whether overemployment is associated with a deterioration in wellbeing and health, and whether potential adverse impacts persist as long as the overemployment state continues or whether people get used to working long hours. We find that overemployment is associated with a substantial decline in mental health, with impacts that intensify rather than attenuate over time. Specifically, the SF-12 mental health..

This paper provides novel firm-level estimates of the economic damages caused by temperature shocks to European firms. I rely on a panel data analysis to show wide heterogeneities in the impact of temperature shocks, which depend on firm characteristics. This paper reveals the importance of micro-level data for quantifying climate damage estimates, as the average relationship between temperature and economic outcomes masks firms’ different susceptibilities to weather shocks. These create both winners and losers, harming less productive firms, particularly those in warmer regions, while benefiting more productive ones. Compared with the pooled marginal effect, the least-productive firms exp..

The status of temporary worker is unique. It involves a three-way relationship between an employee, an employer, and a user. Accidents are particularly prevalent for this type of employment and are slow to decrease. Our inquiry focuses on the causes of this prevalence. Drawing on fundamental knowledge, field experience, and a study in the construction sector, we demonstrate that specific prevention methods can be developed, tested, and then scaled up. These methods take into account the diversity of employment trajectories, user profiles, and employer profiles. This qualitative approach to prevention for temporary workers requires consolidating a common knowledge base for prevention stakehol..

Policies promoting green transportation, particularly cycling, are gaining importance in the context of climate change. In order to elucidate the mechanisms behind cycling adoption, this paper proposes a novel compartmental model, which incorporates the time-varying effects of both social influence and contextual factors. We provide a mathematical analysis of the model, showing global convergence to an equilibrium. We also developed a case study of Grenoble, France, which showcases the model's ability to characterize cycling adoption dynamics, highlighting its potential to support sustainable transportation policy design.

Policies promoting green transportation, particularly cycling, are gaining importance in the context of climate change. In order to elucidate the mechanisms behind cycling adoption, this paper proposes a novel compartmental model, which incorporates the time-varying effects of both social influence and contextual factors. We provide a mathematical analysis of the model, showing global convergence to an equilibrium. We also developed a case study of Grenoble, France, which showcases the model's ability to characterize cycling adoption dynamics, highlighting its potential to support sustainable transportation policy design.

The EU has set an objective of reaching 10% of landscape features on its agricultural land by 2030 as part of its latest Biodiversity Strategy. This share is often considered the minimum amount of semi-natural habitats required to halt biodiversity declines and ensure the provision of ecosystem services. This policy objective has faced considerable political opposition due to potentially high budgetary and opportunity costs. We explore farmers' preferences towards hypothetical incentive schemes that ensure the provision of 10% of semi-natural habitats at the landscape level. We use the results of a discrete choice experiment to estimate the total budgetary costs of different schemes and pote..