Economics: Research Guide

Countries around the world increase the downstream cost of low carbon technologies using anti-dumping duties and local content requirements, while simultaneously blaming inadequate efforts to address climate change on the economic cost of doing so. This paper presents a 2-country, 2-period strategic model of trade in a clean technology in the presence of differential country-level production costs and imperfect competition. If the difference in production cost is large enough and learning-by-doing allows the laggard country to catch up, then in the absence of production subsidies remaining in autarky during Stage 1 of the game can be welfare-improving for both countries. This result is stren..

Leaky offsets are old news. As the world embraces nature-based solutions as a core strategy for critical near-term climate change mitigation, transactions of nature-based offsets in both compliance and voluntary markets reflect an underlying assumption that current approaches to managing leakage at the project level are working. We argue that this is not the case: leading third-party certification standards appear to vastly understate leakage compared to the research literature, and the tools available for project-level crediting cannot deliver the accuracy needed in practice. We propose an alternative, conservative, approach for avoiding leakage by design, based on understanding the ‘dual..

Countries around the world increase the downstream cost of low carbon technologies using anti-dumping duties and local content requirements, while simultaneously blaming inadequate efforts to address climate change on the economic cost of doing so. This paper presents a 2-country, 2-period strategic model of trade in a clean technology in the presence of differential country-level production costs and imperfect competition. If the difference in production cost is large enough and learning-by-doing allows the laggard country to catch up, then in the absence of production subsidies remaining in autarky during Stage 1 of the game can be welfare-improving for both countries. This result is stren..

I propose an empirical framework to identify different degrees of vulnerability to poverty using two vulnerability lines that classify currently non-poor people into risk groups: high, moderate and low risk of falling into poverty in the next period. The latter corresponds to the income-secure middle class. My approach features two contributions. First, it extends the latest research on vulnerability to poverty, introducing a new subdivision among the vulnerable group that would be useful, in practice, for public policy objectives. Second, it uses two models to predict both poverty entry probability and household income as part of the estimation procedures. The former controls for initial co..

Leaky offsets are old news. As the world embraces nature-based solutions as a core strategy for critical near-term climate change mitigation, transactions of nature-based offsets in both compliance and voluntary markets reflect an underlying assumption that current approaches to managing leakage at the project level are working. We argue that this is not the case: leading third-party certification standards appear to vastly understate leakage compared to the research literature, and the tools available for project-level crediting cannot deliver the accuracy needed in practice. We propose an alternative, conservative, approach for avoiding leakage by design, based on understanding the ‘dual..

The optimal transition to a low-carbon economy must account for adjustment costs in switching from dirty to clean capital, technological progress, and economic and climatic shocks. We study the low-carbon transition using a dynamic stochastic general equilibrium model with emissions abatement costs calibrated on a large energy modelling database, solved with recursive methods. We show how capital inertia puts upward pressure on emissions and temperatures in the short run, but that nonetheless it is optimal to actively disinvest from – to ‘strand’ – a significant share of the dirty capital stock. Conversely, clean technological progress, as well as uncertainty about climatic and econo..

An analytical formula is presented for the Social Cost of Carbon (SCC) taking account of intragenerational income inequality, in addition to intergenerational income inequality, macro-economic uncertainty and rare disasters to economic growth. The social discount rate is adjusted for intra- and intergenerational inequality aversion and risk aversion. If growth reduces intragenerational inequality, the SCC is lower than with inequality-neutral growth, especially if intra- and intergenerational inequality aversion are high. Calibrated to the observed interest rate and risk premium, the SCC in 2020 is $125/tCO2 without considering intragenerational inequality, $81/tCO2 if intragenerational ineq..

The optimal transition to a low-carbon economy must account for adjustment costs in switching from dirty to clean capital, technological progress, and economic and climatic shocks. We study the low-carbon transition using a dynamic stochastic general equilibrium model with emissions abatement costs calibrated on a large energy modelling database, solved with recursive methods. We show how capital inertia puts upward pressure on emissions and temperatures in the short run, but that nonetheless it is optimal to actively disinvest from – to ‘strand’ – a significant share of the dirty capital stock. Conversely, clean technological progress, as well as uncertainty about climatic and econo..

The optimal transition to a low-carbon economy must account for adjustment costs in switching from dirty to clean capital, technological progress, and economic and climatic shocks. We study the low-carbon transition using a dynamic stochastic general equilibrium model with emissions abatement costs calibrated on a large energy modelling database, solved with recursive methods. We show how capital inertia puts upward pressure on emissions and temperatures in the short run, but that nonetheless it is optimal to actively disinvest from – to ‘strand’ – a significant share of the dirty capital stock. Conversely, clean technological progress, as well as uncertainty about climatic and econo..

An analytical formula is presented for the Social Cost of Carbon (SCC) taking account of intragenerational income inequality, in addition to intergenerational income inequality, macro-economic uncertainty and rare disasters to economic growth. The social discount rate is adjusted for intra- and intergenerational inequality aversion and risk aversion. If growth reduces intragenerational inequality, the SCC is lower than with inequality-neutral growth, especially if intra- and intergenerational inequality aversion are high. Calibrated to the observed interest rate and risk premium, the SCC in 2020 is $125/tCO2 without considering intragenerational inequality, $81/tCO2 if intragenerational ineq..

An analytical formula is presented for the Social Cost of Carbon (SCC) taking account of intragenerational income inequality, in addition to intergenerational income inequality, macro-economic uncertainty and rare disasters to economic growth. The social discount rate is adjusted for intra- and intergenerational inequality aversion and risk aversion. If growth reduces intragenerational inequality, the SCC is lower than with inequality-neutral growth, especially if intra- and intergenerational inequality aversion are high. Calibrated to the observed interest rate and risk premium, the SCC in 2020 is $125/tCO2 without considering intragenerational inequality, $81/tCO2 if intragenerational ineq..

Countries around the world increase the downstream cost of low carbon technologies using anti-dumping duties and local content requirements, while simultaneously blaming inadequate efforts to address climate change on the economic cost of doing so. This paper presents a 2-country, 2-period strategic model of trade in a clean technology in the presence of differential country-level production costs and imperfect competition. If the difference in production cost is large enough and learning-by-doing allows the laggard country to catch up, then in the absence of production subsidies remaining in autarky during Stage 1 of the game can be welfare-improving for both countries. This result is stren..

An analytical formula is presented for the Social Cost of Carbon (SCC) taking account of intragenerational income inequality, in addition to intergenerational income inequality, macro-economic uncertainty and rare disasters to economic growth. The social discount rate is adjusted for intra- and intergenerational inequality aversion and risk aversion. If growth reduces intragenerational inequality, the SCC is lower than with inequality-neutral growth, especially if intra- and intergenerational inequality aversion are high. Calibrated to the observed interest rate and risk premium, the SCC in 2020 is $125/tCO2 without considering intragenerational inequality, $81/tCO2 if intragenerational ineq..

Countries around the world increase the downstream cost of low carbon technologies using anti-dumping duties and local content requirements, while simultaneously blaming inadequate efforts to address climate change on the economic cost of doing so. This paper presents a 2-country, 2-period strategic model of trade in a clean technology in the presence of differential country-level production costs and imperfect competition. If the difference in production cost is large enough and learning-by-doing allows the laggard country to catch up, then in the absence of production subsidies remaining in autarky during Stage 1 of the game can be welfare-improving for both countries. This result is stren..

In this paper we review the Greek economic crisis focusing on the banking system. Banksovereign linkages were strong during the crisis: banks’ liquidity problems before the sovereign crisis spilled over to the real economy, and more importantly the sovereign’s default rendered all Greek banks insolvent because of their positions in government bonds. The Greek banking system was put back on its feet through a series of recapitalizations, following which industry concentration became the highest in Europe. Banks were slow to reduce non-performing loans (NPLs), which peaked at 48.9% of gross loans, because of their limited capital buffers. Government guarantees for securitizations were fina..

In this paper we review the Greek economic crisis focusing on the banking system. Banksovereign linkages were strong during the crisis: banks’ liquidity problems before the sovereign crisis spilled over to the real economy, and more importantly the sovereign’s default rendered all Greek banks insolvent because of their positions in government bonds. The Greek banking system was put back on its feet through a series of recapitalizations, following which industry concentration became the highest in Europe. Banks were slow to reduce non-performing loans (NPLs), which peaked at 48.9% of gross loans, because of their limited capital buffers. Government guarantees for securitizations were fina..

In this paper we review the Greek economic crisis focusing on the banking system. Banksovereign linkages were strong during the crisis: banks’ liquidity problems before the sovereign crisis spilled over to the real economy, and more importantly the sovereign’s default rendered all Greek banks insolvent because of their positions in government bonds. The Greek banking system was put back on its feet through a series of recapitalizations, following which industry concentration became the highest in Europe. Banks were slow to reduce non-performing loans (NPLs), which peaked at 48.9% of gross loans, because of their limited capital buffers. Government guarantees for securitizations were fina..

Lack of access to banking and financial services appreciably hinders development, particularly in the global South. For this reason, financial inclusion is a crucial objective of the Sustainable Development Goals. One main barrier to financial inclusion is the lack of trust in banking. From a sample of 40 developing countries and 82,724 individuals, we verify that multinational banks can increase trust in banking by incorporating sustainability criteria into their business model.

Lack of access to banking and financial services appreciably hinders development, particularly in the global South. For this reason, financial inclusion is a crucial objective of the Sustainable Development Goals. One main barrier to financial inclusion is the lack of trust in banking. From a sample of 40 developing countries and 82,724 individuals, we verify that multinational banks can increase trust in banking by incorporating sustainability criteria into their business model.

As the climate is changing, the global economy is adapting. We provide a novel method of estimating how much adaptation has taken place historically, how much it has cost, and how much it has reduced the impacts of climate change. The method is based on a structurally estimated, globally aggregated model of long-run growth, which identifies how household consumption and fertility preferences, innovation, and land use allow the economy to adapt to climate change. We identify the key role of agriculture, because it is especially vulnerable to climate change and food cannot be perfectly substituted. To compensate for declining crop yields, the world economy has shifted resources into agricultur..

As the climate is changing, the global economy is adapting. We provide a novel method of estimating how much adaptation has taken place historically, how much it has cost, and how much it has reduced the impacts of climate change. The method is based on a structurally estimated, globally aggregated model of long-run growth, which identifies how household consumption and fertility preferences, innovation, and land use allow the economy to adapt to climate change. We identify the key role of agriculture, because it is especially vulnerable to climate change and food cannot be perfectly substituted. To compensate for declining crop yields, the world economy has shifted resources into agricultur..

As the climate is changing, the global economy is adapting. We provide a novel method of estimating how much adaptation has taken place historically, how much it has cost, and how much it has reduced the impacts of climate change. The method is based on a structurally estimated, globally aggregated model of long-run growth, which identifies how household consumption and fertility preferences, innovation, and land use allow the economy to adapt to climate change. We identify the key role of agriculture, because it is especially vulnerable to climate change and food cannot be perfectly substituted. To compensate for declining crop yields, the world economy has shifted resources into agricultur..

As the climate is changing, the global economy is adapting. We provide a novel method of estimating how much adaptation has taken place historically, how much it has cost, and how much it has reduced the impacts of climate change. The method is based on a structurally estimated, globally aggregated model of long-run growth, which identifies how household consumption and fertility preferences, innovation, and land use allow the economy to adapt to climate change. We identify the key role of agriculture, because it is especially vulnerable to climate change and food cannot be perfectly substituted. To compensate for declining crop yields, the world economy has shifted resources into agricultur..

As the climate is changing, the global economy is adapting. We provide a novel method of estimating how much adaptation has taken place historically, how much it has cost, and how much it has reduced the impacts of climate change. The method is based on a structurally estimated, globally aggregated model of long-run growth, which identifies how household consumption and fertility preferences, innovation, and land use allow the economy to adapt to climate change. We identify the key role of agriculture, because it is especially vulnerable to climate change and food cannot be perfectly substituted. To compensate for declining crop yields, the world economy has shifted resources into agricultur..

The optimal transition to a low-carbon economy must account for adjustment costs in switching from dirty to clean capital, technological progress, and economic and climatic shocks. We study the low-carbon transition using a dynamic stochastic general equilibrium model with emissions abatement costs calibrated on a large energy modelling database, solved with recursive methods. We show how capital inertia puts upward pressure on emissions and temperatures in the short run, but that nonetheless it is optimal to actively disinvest from – to ‘strand’ – a significant share of the dirty capital stock. Conversely, clean technological progress, as well as uncertainty about climatic and econo..

Using new surveys on more than 40,000 respondents in twenty countries that account for 72% of global CO2 emissions, we study the understanding of and attitudes toward climate change and climate policies. We show that, across countries, support for climate policies hinges on three key perceptions centered around the effectiveness o f the policies in reducing emissions (effectiveness c concerns), t heir distributional impacts on lower-income households (inequality concerns), and their impact on the respondents’ household (self-interest). We show experimentally that information specifically addressing these key concerns can substantially increase the support for climate policies in many count..

The outbreak of the coronavirus (COVID-19) may exert profound impacts on China's economic development and carbon emissions via structural changes. Due to a lack of data, previous studies have focused on quantifying the changes in carbon emissions but have failed to identify structural changes in the determinants of carbon emissions. Here, we use the latest input‒output table of China's economy and apply structural decomposition analysis to understand the dynamic changes in the determinants of carbon emissions from 2002 to 2020, specifically the impact of COVID-19 on carbon emissions. We find that the contribution of production structure to carbon emission growth was enlarged due to the pan..

The optimal transition to a low-carbon economy must account for adjustment costs in switching from dirty to clean capital, technological progress, and economic and climatic shocks. We study the low-carbon transition using a dynamic stochastic general equilibrium model with emissions abatement costs calibrated on a large energy modelling database, solved with recursive methods. We show how capital inertia puts upward pressure on emissions and temperatures in the short run, but that nonetheless it is optimal to actively disinvest from – to ‘strand’ – a significant share of the dirty capital stock. Conversely, clean technological progress, as well as uncertainty about climatic and econo..

The outbreak of the coronavirus (COVID-19) may exert profound impacts on China's economic development and carbon emissions via structural changes. Due to a lack of data, previous studies have focused on quantifying the changes in carbon emissions but have failed to identify structural changes in the determinants of carbon emissions. Here, we use the latest input‒output table of China's economy and apply structural decomposition analysis to understand the dynamic changes in the determinants of carbon emissions from 2002 to 2020, specifically the impact of COVID-19 on carbon emissions. We find that the contribution of production structure to carbon emission growth was enlarged due to the pan..

Using new surveys on more than 40,000 respondents in twenty countries that account for 72% of global CO2 emissions, we study the understanding of and attitudes toward climate change and climate policies. We show that, across countries, support for climate policies hinges on three key perceptions centered around the effectiveness o f the policies in reducing emissions (effectiveness c concerns), t heir distributional impacts on lower-income households (inequality concerns), and their impact on the respondents’ household (self-interest). We show experimentally that information specifically addressing these key concerns can substantially increase the support for climate policies in many count..