Economics: Research Guide

In this paper we revisit the Canadian experience with floating exchange rates since 1950. Canada was a pioneer in successfully adopting a floating exchange rate during the Bretton Woods pegged exchange rate regime. Since then, most advanced countries have followed the Canadian example. A key finding of our paper based on historical narrative and econometric analysis is that economic performance under floating depended on its monetary policy performance as Milton Friedman originally argued in his seminal 1953 article making the case for floating exchange rates. Canadian monetary policy achieved low and stable inflation once it adopted inflation targeting as a nominal anchor. Also, Canadaâ€..

Property-rights capital stands as a fragile entity, encountering obstacles, regressions, and challenges worldwide. This underscores the necessity to endogenize both property-rights capital accumulation and physical capital accumulation within an integrated dynamic framework. Through this approach, our paper explores the complex interplay between economic variables and institutional capital, with a specific focus on property-rights capital. It emphasizes the necessity of integrating the accumulation of property-rights capital and physical capital within a dynamic framework to fully grasp their interaction. The study reveals that property-rights capital, serving as institutional capital, is de..

Este artículo analiza las características económicas y sociopolíticas de los grupos indígenas que ocuparon el territorio de la actual Colombia antes de la llegada de los colonizadores españoles, junto con la geografía de las áreas donde vivieron o se establecieron. Se argumenta que las características geográficas del territorio estaban vinculadas a la estructura productiva de las sociedades indígenas precolombinas, lo que a su vez afectó su organización social y política. Se destaca que la capacidad del territorio para cultivar alimentos de alto contenido calórico, como la papa, estaba relacionada con el grado de complejidad sociopolítica de estas sociedades. Por ejemplo, la ..

We study the fiscal and political consequences of state modernization in the Spanish colonial empire in Latin America. We focus on the introduction of a new corps of provincial governors called intendants in the late 18th century. Leveraging the staggered adoption of the reform and administrative fiscal microdata, we show that the intendancy system sizably increased Crown revenue by strengthening state presence in the periphery and disrupting local elite capture. Politically, the reform reduced rebellions by previously exploited indigenous peoples. However, naming patterns reveal that the intendants heightened anti-Spanish sentiment among Creole elites, plausibly contributing to the nascent ..

This paper documents the evolution of wage differentials between skilled and unskilled workers in Sweden throughout the first half of the twentieth century. Using newly digitized data on income taxes, this paper demonstrates that the skill premium decreased throughout 1900–1950, and most rapidly from 1930 onward. This is similar to the fall in skill premium documented by Goldin and Katz for the United States. However, unlike in the United States, the fall in skill premia in Sweden cannot be attributed to a supply shock of high school graduates. Rather, this paper shows that incomes of the low- and unskilled increased faster than those for more-skilled. Despite of similar technological chan..

This article provides a self-contained overview of the theory of rational asset price bubbles. We cover topics from basic definitions, properties, and classical results to frontier research, with an emphasis on bubbles attached to real assets such as stocks, housing, and land. The main message is that bubbles attached to real assets are fundamentally nonstationary phenomena related to unbalanced growth. We present a bare-bones model and draw three new insights: (i) the emergence of asset price bubbles is a necessity, instead of a possibility; (ii) asset pricing implications are markedly different between balanced growth of stationary nature and unbalanced growth of nonstationary nature; and ..

In this chapter, we summarize the literature on the relationship between war and happiness, highlighting the heterogeneity in both estimates and study designs, and the challenges to estimating the causal impact of war on happiness.

This paper introduces a new tool, OccCANINE, to automatically transform occupational descriptions into the HISCO classification system. The manual work involved in processing and classifying occupational descriptions is error-prone, tedious, and time-consuming. We finetune a preexisting language model (CANINE) to do this automatically, thereby performing in seconds and minutes what previously took days and weeks. The model is trained on 14 million pairs of occupational descriptions and HISCO codes in 13 different languages contributed by 22 different sources. Our approach is shown to have accuracy, recall, and precision above 90 percent. Our tool breaks the metaphorical HISCO barrier and mak..

Children early in the birth order get more parental care than later children. Does this significantly affect their life chances? An extensive genealogy of 428, 280 English people 1680-2024, with substantial sets of complete families, suggests that birth order had little effect on social outcomes either for contemporary outcomes, or in earlier centuries. For a small group of elite families in the nineteenth century and earlier, the oldest son was advantaged in terms of wealth, education, and occupational status. But even in this elite group, among later sons, birth order had no effect. We consider in the paper how the absence of birth order effects in England can be reconciled with reports of..

This paper documents the changing skill composition during industrialization in Sweden using population censuses and HISCO/HISCLASS scheme. The results reveal a general shift from unskilled to more-skilled occupations, though the trend differs by gender and sector. First, the skill upgrading was more pronounced for women, who left agriculture for better job opportunities elsewhere. Second, within manufacturing, there was a shift from medium-skilled to low- and unskilled occupations, consistent with the workshop-to-factory shift. However, this trend is mirrored by skill upgrading within services, where the expansion of trade and transport introduced new more-skilled jobs. Finally, I show that..

This is the manuscript of a keynote speech which I gave in October 2023 at a conference that celebrated 30 years of the Polish-German Academic Forum at the Warsaw School of Economics. The text reviews the evolution of globalization in the past decades, covering various dimensions of economic integration and devoting particular attention to the experiences of Poland and Germany. It then discusses the theoretical merits of free trade and international capital mobility, but also its distributional consequences, and eventually summarizes the empirical evidence on the effects of economic globalization. Finally, it sheds light on the recent anti-globalization backlash and analyzes the forces and m..

We study the macroeconomic causes and consequences of bank runs in 184 countries over the period of 1800-2022. A new narrative chronology of bank run events coupled with a newly constructed historical dataset on banking sector deposits allows us to distinguish between systemic bank runs—those associated with substantial declines in aggregate deposits—and non-systemic episodes. We find that bank runs are typically associated with large contractions in deposits, credit, and output, as well as exchange rate crashes and sudden stops. Whether deposits contract during runs, in turn, predicts the severity of output declines, highlighting that bank runs are particularly costly when they are syst..

The adoption of Judaism by black Africans was a form of liberation from Anglo-Christian authority. Blacks and Jews are the two marginalised and stigmatised minorities in Western culture. Since ancient times they have maintained a complex relationship of identification, cooperation and rivalry. The Igbo of Nigeria, for example, were at the forefront of a normative Jewish movement that included several other ethnic groups. The rhetoric of the Holocaust, Zionism and the external features of Judaism were exploited by the Biafran neo-secessionists for their own ends. The majority of African Jews live in South Africa. However, most of them are white. The South African Jewish community numbered mor..

Over the last 10 years or so there has been a resurgence of interest in the English king Richard III, especially after his remains are found in 2012 after being lost or missing for centuries. Prior to this, there are many publications, reports, and documentaries alluding to a “smear” campaign being conducted against the king by either the Tudor monarchs who succeeded him and/or by their confederates and surrogates. It is alleged that this is done in order to promote and make the Tudor dynasty of the 16th Century (Henry VII, Henry VIII, Mary I, and Elizabeth I) appear to be much better leaders by comparison and to make the social and economic times of Tudor England look better than the bl..

Jews in Africa have a long history. Africans have encountered Jewish myths and traditions in different forms and situations, leading to the development of a new Jewish identity linked to that of the Diaspora. Different groups of black Jews from western, central, eastern and southern Africa used and imagined their oral traditions and traditional practices to construct a distinct Jewish identity. The adoption of Judaism by black Africans was a form of liberation from Anglo-Christian authority. Blacks and Jews are the two marginalised and stigmatised minorities in Western culture. Since ancient times they have maintained a complex relationship of identification, cooperation and rivalry. The Igb..

The Spanish encomienda, a colonial forced-labour institution that lasted three centuries, killed many indigenous people and caused others to flee into nomadism. What were its long-term effects? We digitize a great deal of historical data from the mid-1500s onwards and reconstruct the Spanish conquerors’ route through Colombia using detailed topographical features to calculate their least-cost path. We show that Colombian municipalities with encomiendas in 1560 enjoy better outcomes today across multiple dimensions of development than those without: higher municipal GDP per capita, tax receipts, and educational attainment; lower infant mortality, poverty, and unsatisfied basic needs; larger..

In this article, we study what individual and social characteristics made it more likely for an individual to resist slavery. We employ a unique census from the Caribbean island of St. Croix in 1846, which allows us to study not only the characteristics of those that did resist slavery, but also of the whole enslaved population on the island. We analyze this data by using descriptive statistics as well as econometric analysis. Our findings show that relative deprivation played no role: individuals were as likely to resist slavery regardless of the relative status of the position they held. Resistance might have been more likely on small establishments, possibly the consequence of a greater l..

"Advanced economies will face population decline in the years and decades to come, particularly among those of working age. Yet, there is little empirical evidence of corresponding labor market implications. Tackling this shortcoming from a historical macroeconomic point of view, we compile a new dataset for sixteen advanced economies, covering demographic and labor market variables on an annual basis from 1875 to 2019. Based on a dynamic, nonlinear econometric model, we identify structural population shocks by using lagged births as external instruments for working-age population inflows and outflows, and trace the economic effects conditionally on the demographic regime. Our results sugges..

Review of “A Herstory of Economics” by Edith Kuiper.

Review of “La science est un jeu: La théorie des jeux dans la France des années 1950” by Tarik Tazdaït.

On December 4, 2023, the first workshop on the "Review of Monetary Policy from a Broad Perspective, " entitled "The Effects and Side Effects of Unconventional Monetary Policy, " was held at the Bank of Japan's Head Office. At the workshop, economists and financial and economic experts participated in a lively discussion on the effects and side effects of monetary policy over the past 25 years, focusing on four topics: financial markets, the financial system, the Bank of Japan's balance sheet, and unconventional monetary policy. Session 1 provided an overview of domestic financial markets over the past 25 years and the impact of monetary policy on the degree of market functioning. Participant..

Why are certain movies more successful in some markets than others? Are the entertainment products we consume reflective of our core values and beliefs? These questions drive our investigation into the relationship between a society’s oral tradition and the financial success of films. We combine a unique catalog of local tales, myths, and legends around the world with data on international movie screenings and revenues. First, we quantify the similarity between movies’ plots and traditional motifs employing machine learning techniques. Comparing the same movie across different markets, we establish that films that resonate more with local folklore systematically accrue higher r..

Using administrative transactions data from the United Kingdom, we document a swift decline in sterling use among British exporters after the 2016 Brexit vote. Through a novel decomposition, we document most of this decline comes from two sources: (i) continuously-operating firms switching from sterling to dollars or local currencies and (ii) reductions in transactions for sterling-loyal firms. In contrast, new entrants into exporting primarily invoice in sterling before and after the Brexit vote. Our findings provide the first evidence on the quantitative relevance of new channels that contribute to changes in aggregate invoicing shares amidst political upheaval.

Why are certain movies more successful in some markets than others? Are the entertainment products we consume reflective of our core values and beliefs? These questions drive our investigation into the relationship between a society’s oral tradition and the financial success of films. We combine a unique catalog of local tales, myths, and legends around the world with data on international movie screenings and revenues. First, we quantify the similarity between movies’ plots and traditional motifs employing machine learning techniques. Comparing the same movie across different markets, we establish that films that resonate more with local folklore systematically accrue higher r..

We study the evolution of patenting in China from 1985-2019. We use a Large Language Model to measure patent importance based on patent abstracts and classify patent ownership using a comprehensive business registry. We highlight four insights. First, average patent importance declined from 2000-2010 but has increased more recently. Second, private Chinese firms account for most of patenting growth whereas overseas patentees have played a diminishing role. Third, patentees have greatly reduced their dependence on foreign knowledge. Finally, Chinese and foreign patenting have become more similar in technological composition, but differences persist within technology classes as revealed by abs..

In this paper we delve into the historical evolution of data as a fundamental element in communication and knowledge transmission. The paper traces the stages of knowledge dissemination from oral traditions to the digital era, highlighting the significance of languages and cultural diversity in this progression. It also explores the impact of digital technologies on memory, communication, and cultural preservation, emphasizing the need for promoting a culture of the digital (rather than a digital culture) in Africa and beyond. Additionally, it discusses the challenges and opportunities presented by data biases in AI development, underscoring the importance of creating diverse datasets for eq..

Inspired by the increased interest in economic sanctions and their consequences, this special issue contains a collection of studies by experts aiming to reflect the recent developments and trends in the literature on economic sanctions. The contributions contain theoretical research on the topic, data collection, and empirical work on the impact, effectiveness and success of sanctions. Moreover, the contributions come from economists and political scientists and are, therefore, interdisciplinary in nature. In this introduction, we highlight each paper in the volume by summarizing its salient features and by placing them in the broader context of the literature on economic sanctions. We also..

A discussion of the special role of the U.S dollar.

The trinity of liberty, the rule of law, and private property are inter- connected principles that form the foundation of a free and just society. Each element depends on the others to ensure the protection of individual rights and the proper functioning of legal and political institutions.