Economics: Research Guide

The Covid-19 pandemic has raised concerns about the resilience of health systems. The aim of this study is twofold: i) to measure and compare the resilience of health system efficiency of OECD countries before and during Covid-19 and ii) to determine the healthcare efficiency drivers (e.g., socioeconomic) of health system performance. Using a dataset of 31 OECD countries for 2018 and 2020, we first estimate bias-adjusted efficiency scores, followed by a double bootstrap truncated regression procedure to study the drivers associated with health system efficiency. We find that the health system efficiency overall score decreased among OECD countries during the Covid-19 pandemic compared to bef..

This is the manuscript of a keynote speech which I gave in October 2023 at a conference that celebrated 30 years of the Polish-German Academic Forum at the Warsaw School of Economics. The text reviews the evolution of globalization in the past decades, covering various dimensions of economic integration and devoting particular attention to the experiences of Poland and Germany. It then discusses the theoretical merits of free trade and international capital mobility, but also its distributional consequences, and eventually summarizes the empirical evidence on the effects of economic globalization. Finally, it sheds light on the recent anti-globalization backlash and analyzes the forces and m..

Social insurance and social assistance reflect fundamental principles of social policies. Social insurance benefits cover employed individuals against a social risk event such as unemployment or disability in exchange of paid contributions. Social assistance benefits, in turn, are designed typically to secure the minimum standard of living, regardless of past contribution. In this article we ask if the dualism is feasible to depict contemporary social benefits that cover traditional social risks: unemployment, childbirth, sickness, disability, and old age. A policy analysis of six European countries with extensive social security systems – Denmark, Estonia, Finland, Netherlands, Sweden, an..

This paper identifies and quantifies the drivers of inflation dynamics in the three Baltic economies and assesses the effectiveness of fiscal policy in fighting inflation. It also analyzes the macroeconomic impact of inflation on competitiveness by focusing on the relationship between wages and productivity in the tradeable sector. The results reveal that inflation in the Baltics is largely driven by global factors, but domestic demand matters as well, suggesting that fiscal policy can play a role in containing inflation. Also, there is robust evidence of a long-run (cointegration) relationship between (real) wages in the tradeable (manufacturing) sector and productivity in the Baltics with ..

Data on online job postings represents an important source of information for local labour markets. Many countries lack statistics on labour demand that are sufficiently up-to-date and disaggregated across regions, sectors and occupations. Web-scraped data from online job postings can provide further insights on the trends in labour demand and the skills needed across regions, sectors and occupations. This paper assesses the comparability and validity between Lightcast and other data sources for Austria, Belgium, Bulgaria, Germany, Hungary, the Netherlands, Portugal, Romania, Spain and Sweden, for the years 2019 to 2022 across regions, sectors and occupations. It concludes with some recommen..

This article exploits both the crude oil price surge consecutive to the invasion of Ukraine and 2022 fuel excise tax rebates in France as quasi-natural experiments to infer the price sensitivity of fuel demand. Based on granular individual bank account data at the transaction level, we properly disentangle anticipation effects from price effects, and estimate an average price elasticity of -0.31. It varies little with respect to income and location but substantially decreases, in absolute, with respect to fuel spending and is higher for retirees. We evaluate financial and distributional effects of the actual tax policy as well as its impact on CO2 emissions based on counterfactual simulation..

The inflation surge in recent years is having profound social, economic, and political consequences. With food price changes being an integral part of inflation, low income segments of the population are strongly impacted. What makes this period so unusual is the breadth of price pressures that are affecting both low and high-income countries. In essence, this phenomenon shows that inflation is increasingly synchronised across borders. This study examines price developments across countries and over time and investigates the driving factors behind food price hikes. Our analysis reveals that a complex mix of causes has led to the soaring food prices seen in 2021-2022. The spread of COVID-19 p..

Russia’s war in Ukraine has disrupted the supply of natural gas for many European countries, triggering an energy crisis and affecting energy security. We simulate the medium-term effects of these trade disruptions and find that most European countries have limited GDP losses but those more dependent on Russian natural gas face moderate losses. European fossil fuel consumption and emissions are reduced and after accounting for the war impacts, achieving Europe’s emission targets becomes slightly less costly. In terms of energy security, the war eliminates European energy dependency from Russian imports, but most of the natural gas and oil imports will be substituted by other suppliers. W..

It has been commonly believed that economic reforms in the post-Mao Era since 1980 have changed China from autarky to an export-oriented developmental path, accompanied by inward and cheap FDI with advanced foreign technology. This paper challenges this view with quantitative evidence and shows that China’s recent growth has depended heavily on a domestic source of capital coming from newly available household sayings, stemming from (1) state mandatory price control over food as a wage good on the one hand and (2) a fast-growing wage level due to arising labour productivity on the other.

Using a large panel of firm-level data, this paper provides an analysis of how inflation shocks in the Baltics between 1997 and 2021 affected total factor productivity (TFP), gross profitability, and net fixed investment in nonfinancial sectors. First, we find that inflation and inflation volatility had mixed effects on TFP growth, profitability and net fixed investment in the first year as well as over the medium term, albeit at a dissipating rate. Second, focusing on subsamples, we find that inflation shocks had differential effects on large versus small firms. Third, we explore sectoral heterogeneity in how firms responded to inflation shocks and observe significant variation across trada..

This study analyses the long-lasting effects of the Vietnam War on the human capital of first and second generations after 50 years. Our focus is on Agent Orange, herbicide bombings used by the US military during the Vietnam War from 1962 to 1971. Although there is extensive research on the direct impacts of exposure to the war on education, health, and economic conditions, little is known about its outcomes on children born well after the war. Using the nationally representative household data in 2014, 2016, and 2018, combined with Agent Orange Data, this paper finds evidence that bombing exposure has long-lasting adverse effects not only on the affected generation but also on the children ..

We study international trade and macroeconomic dynamics triggered by the imposition of sanctions. We begin with a tractable two-country model where Home and Foreign countries have comparative advantages in production of differentiated consumption goods and a commodity (e.g., gas), respectively. Home imposes sanctions on Foreign. Financial sanctions exclude a fraction of Foreign agents from the international bond market. Gas sanctions take the form of a ban on gas trade, equivalent to an appropriate price cap in our model. Differentiated goods trade sanctions exclude a fraction of Foreign and Home exporters from international trade. All sanctions lead to resource reallocation in both economie..

Abstract This paper analyses the consumer’s decision to apply for credit and the probability of the credit being accepted in the euro area during a period characterized by the unprecedented concomitance of events and changing borrowing conditions linked to the global COVID-19 pandemic and the Russian invasion of Ukraine. We use data between 2020Q1 and 2023Q2 from the ECB’s Consumer Expectations Survey. We find that the credit demand is highest when the first lockdown ends and drops when supportive monetary compensation schemes are implemented. There is evidence that constrained households are significantly less likely to apply for credit. Credit is more likely to be accepted un..

Formal conceptions of state capacity have mostly focused on indirect measures of state capacity – by, for instance, using the state’s fiscal or extractive capacity as a proxy for its overall capacity. Yet, this input or extractive view of state capacity falls short, especially since cross-country empirical evidence suggests that similar levels of fiscal capacity, measured by tax revenues as a percent-age of GDP, can produce starkly different outputs – both in classic economic terms and in broader terms that citizens would recognize as desirable outcomes, including quality of life, health, security, equality of opportunity, and inter-generational mobility. This paper argues that a centr..

This paper focuses on the calibration of borrower-based measures using a semi-structural modelling framework and defines two approaches to the setting of these measures. The first approach takes into account the magnitude of losses in the mortgage portfolio and the associated absorption potential of banks, while the second, preferred approach, considers both the benefits of regulation in terms of loss reduction and its costs manifested as foregone profits. This approach thus facilitates the optimization of the macroprudential strategy to minimize Type I error (no regulation) and Type II error (excessive regulation). The case of the Czech Republic serves as an illustrative example, demonstrat..

The three eastern European states had practically no waiting time before being accepted as candidate countries right after application

This paper reports on an empirical analysis of 42, 094 public/private companies in China and 21 Eastern European countries to grasp the actual state and determinants of board gender diversity in emerging market firms. We confirmed that firms in these countries are comparable to those in advanced nations in terms of the prevalence of firms recruiting female board members and the female share of board directorships. Furthermore, in emerging market countries, internal promotions are used as often as, or even more often than, external ones to recruit women to director positions. The results revealed that board composition and ownership structure are important determinants of the gender diversity..

Availability of kin has profound effects on the lives of people, especially in later life when social networks tend to be composed prevalently of family members, and care needs increase. Using data from the last wave (wave 8; 2019-2020) of the Survey of Health, Ageing and Retirement in Europe (SHARE), we estimate the prevalence of kinlessness (i.e., absence of close kin) among older adults aged 65 and more in 27 countries. We consider different definitions of kinlessness, from a less restrictive (i.e., based only on the absence of both partner and children) to a more restrictive one (based also on the absence of grandchildren, parents and siblings). Results show a large variation of kinlessn..

This paper proposes a novel approach to estimating the contribution of macroeconomic factors to sovereign spreads in the euro area, defined as the spread level consistent with the country’s prevailing macroeconomic conditions. Despite the wealth of papers estimating sovereign spreads, model-dependency and lack of robustness remain key considerations. Accordingly, we propose a “thick modeling” empirical framework, based on the estimation of a wide range of models. We focus on 10-year sovereign bond yields for nine euro area countries, using a sample that covers the period January 2000 to December 2023. Our results show that observed spreads behave in line with macro-financial determinan..

This paper evaluates the gender-specific distributional impact of the recent cost-of-living crisis in six European countries using the Household Budget Survey to assess the degree of regressivity (affecting lower income households more) or progessivity (affecting higher income households more) of inflation experienced by households between April 2021 and July 2023. Despite a growing literature on the distributional impact of inflation, there is limited evidence on gender differentials. We innovate by applying distributional measures and a decomposition method adapted from the taxation literature extended with a gender dimension to assess gender differences in inflation regressivity or progre..

Carbon emissions have become a specific alarming indicators and intricate challenges that lead an extended argue about climate change. The growing trend in the utilization of fossil fuels for the economic progress and simultaneously reducing the carbon quantity has turn into a substantial and global challenge. The aim of this paper is to examine the driving factors of CO$_2$ emissions from energy sector in Romania during the period 2008-2022 emissions using the log mean Divisia index (LMDI) method and takes into account five items: CO$_2$ emissions, primary energy resources, energy consumption, gross domestic product and population, the driving forces of CO$_2$ emissions, based on which it w..

This study evaluates the accessibility of primary care for children in Czechia in light of the declining numbers of general practitioners and the rising numbers of children without a practitioner. We show that children largely receive primary care outside their district of administrative residence, that the average number of children registered per practitioner is increasing, and that the share of children without a practitioner was over 6% in 2022. This study further challenges the use of hospital admissions for ambulatory care sensitive conditions as a measure of the accessibility and quality of primary care. We build a fixed-effects model for district-level data on paediatric hospital adm..

The history, policies and practice of drug control in Asia have been historically multifaceted, particularly concerning substances like opium, cannabis, and various indigenous psychoactive plants. The opium trade, notably in the 19th and early 20th centuries, significantly impacted Asian societies, triggering conflicts, influencing international relations, and altering the socio-economic fabric. Yet, the history of drug control across different parts of Asia reflects a complex interplay of factors and a stark regional diversity. This special issue serves as a platform for interdisciplinary studies that link Asian drug trafficking with collaborative legal responses across the region. The prim..

A stranded asset refers to economic assets that lose their ability to contribute value within their own sector and in other sectors due to the decarbonization of production processes required to meet global climate targets. This process involves either idling or abandoning a portion of physical capital, which can harm the sector in which it is employed and propagate negative effects throughout the entire economy. This study examines the exposure of sectors in Latvia to the risk of physical capital stranding resulting from decarbonizing the economy. Using Input-Output Tables and capital stock data, we quantify the effects of stranded assets and find that the mining and quarrying sector has th..

Background: In Central Europe, the increase in mortality during the COVID-19 pandemic exceeded the number of deaths registered due to coronavirus disease. Miscertification of COVID-19 has been suggested as one of the possible explanations. Analysis of all mentions from death certificates allows us to identify cases where COVID-19 was reported as a contributing rather than the underlying cause of death (UCoD). Methods: Analysis of 187, 000 death certificates with a COVID-19 mention from Austria, Bavaria, Czechia, Lithuania and Poland, 2020–2021. Cause of Death Association Indicators (CDAIs) and Contributing CDAIs were calculated to identify and measure the strength of associations between C..

In recent times, the notion of relationship quality has attracted a lot of interest in the domains of consumer behavior and marketing. This research aims to investigate the influence of service quality, intimacy, and ethics as antecedents on the elements of relationship quality (satisfaction, trust, and commitment) and loyalty in the Vietnamese banking business. Utilizing the mediating function of relationship quality, this research seeks to enhance the understanding of the factors influencing customer loyalty. A survey of 302 bank customers in Vietnam was conducted. The findings show that service quality and ethics have a substantial impact on customer trust, satisfaction, and commitment, r..

The study explores the impact of central bank communications on a range of macro-financial indicators. Specifically, we examine whether information posted on the National Bank of Ukraine (NBU) website influences foreign exchange (FX) markets and the inflation expectations of experts. Our main results suggest that the NBU's statements and press releases on monetary policy issues matter. For instance, we find that exchange rate movements and volatility are negatively correlated with the volumes of publications of the NBU on its official website. However, this effect is noticeably bigger for volatility than for exchange rate changes. The impact of communication on FX developments is the stronge..

Globalization is not over, but it is being reconfigured by events. Internationally, there are economic and political tensions between the United States and China. Both countries have responded with import tariffs, export controls, and foreign investment restrictions that have led to a decline in the relative importance of bilateral trade and the collapse of bilateral foreign direct investment. The paper concludes that globalization remains deeply entrenched despite the Global Financial Crisis, COVID, Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, and U.S.-China tensions. At the same time, the landscape of globalization has been changing in response to these events and specifically in response to U.S.-..

Macroprudential policy has gained prominence for promoting financial stability. In this paper, we assess the effectiveness of macroprudential policy in reducing credit growth over a 22-year period across 129 countries. Additionally, we investigate the interaction between macroprudential policy, dollarisation, and various exchange rate regimes, examining their impact on different financial stability indicators. Our findings indicate that macroprudential policy significantly reduces credit growth within a quarter of implementation, though this is not evident in the case of soft peg exchange rate regimes. Furthermore, our analysis reveals that dollarised countries exhibit superior outcomes in f..