Economics: Research Guide

We explore the evolution and determinants of attitudes towards immigration in Canada, utilizing Canadian Election Studies surveys from 1988 to 2019. Our analysis indicates a notable trend: a consistent decrease in anti-immigrant sentiments until the mid-2000s, followed by a shift around 2008 towards gradually more negative attitudes towards immigration. To better understand the factors influencing these attitudes, we examine a comprehensive set of variables. While economic factors seem to have some association with these attitudes, our findings more significantly underscore the role of group-level socio-psychological factors. Additionally, our analysis identifies an emerging polarization alo..

This paper analyzes the impact of accepting foreign workers, not just from the perspective of an increase in imperfect substitute labor supply, but also including the indirect aspect of an increased educational burden due to the expansion of residency rights. The results lead to the conclusion that the conditions for improving the welfare of native residents, due to the increase in the supply of labor that cannot be perfectly substituted, may not only be met through this increase but also may be relaxed owing to labor movement between industries, which is facilitated by the increased educational burden resulting from the easing of residency rights. This indicates that the improvement in the ..

This paper examines the role of mobilising political will in establishing the conditions necessary for economic and social inclusion of refugees, internally displaced persons, and formerly displaced persons who achieve durable solutions such as voluntary return. It investigates the role and conditions to mobilise political will for more comprehensive and inclusive policies that can lead to long-term local development in contexts of forced displacement in low- and middle-income countries (LICs and MICs). Case studies from Bangladesh, Cameroon, Ecuador, Iraq and Lebanon illustrate the ways in which political will, or its absence, can shape the approach to supporting the forcibly displaced and ..

We study how professional networks are related to immigrant labour market integration. Matched employer-employee data for Sweden show that networks grow with time in the host country and that their composition changes from immigrant toward native network members. A firm-dyadic analysis of re-employment of displaced workers suggests that conational connections have a much larger positive effect than native connections. However, the employment effect of native connections grows with years since migration. Furthermore, native connections tend to be associated with higher earnings and increased hires in connected local industries. After 20 years in Sweden, the built-up connections raise immigran..

We estimate a bilateral gravity equation for emigration rates controlling for decadal weather averages of temperature, precipitation, droughts, and extreme precipitation in origin countries. Using the parameter estimates of the gravity equation, we estimate global, regional, and country-by-country emigration flows using different population and climate scenarios. Global emigration flows are projected to increase between 73 and 91 million in 2030-2039; between 83 and 102 million in 2040-2049; between 88 and 121 in 2050-59, and between 87 and 133 million in 2060-2069. Changes in emigration flows are mainly due to population growth in the origin countries.

We assess how within euro area labor mobility impacts economic dynamics in response to shocks. In the analysis we use an estimated two-region monetary union dynamic stochastic general equilibrium model that allows for a varying degree of labor mobility across regions. We find that, in contrast with traditional optimal currency area predictions, enhanced labor mobility can either mitigate or exacerbate the extent to which the two regions respond differently to shocks. The effects depend crucially on the nature of shocks and variable of interest. In some circumstances, even when it contributes to aligning the responses of the two regions, labor mobility may complicate monetary policy tradeoffs..

We study how exposure of employers to immigrants, both at the market and at the individual firm level, mitigates immigrant-native disparities. We use administrative employee-employer matched data from Portugal, which provides a unique setting given that it experienced almost no immigration until the early 2000s followed by substantial immigration waves. Focusing on the evolution of market wages across successive immigration cohorts, we find that increased employer exposure to immigrant groups can account for up to 25% of the wage convergence between immigrants and natives over the last two decades. We also document that individual-level exposure of firms to immigrants plays an important role..

Many studies argue that intergroup relations between immigrants and natives are influenced by perceptions of cultural distance. They claim that natives tend to favor immigrants who are fluent in the host society’s language, which is operationalized by researchers as a sign of cultural assimilation and identification with the host society. This work assumes that language proficiency is a reasonable manifest indicator of the latent trait of national identification, even though these two concepts, although potentially related, are theoretically distinct. Our study aims to disentangle the relationship between immigrants’ language proficiency and their national identification in the context o..

The article investigates the long-term economic effects of immigrant diversity. Focusing on the large immigration wave experienced by Brazil at the turn of the twentieth century, we ask whether municipalities in the State of São Paulo that received a population of immigrants characterized by a more diverse mix of origin countries ended up having better long-term economic outcomes. To identify causal effects, we leverage on unique historical individual-level data in immigrants arriving in São Paulo between 1880 and 1920, and develop an instrumental variable strategy that combines time variation in the composition of immigrants arriving from overseas with the timing of the railway network ex..

The cultural assimilation of immigrants into the host society is often equated with prospects for economic success, with religion seen as a potential barrier. We investigate the role of ethnic enclaves and churches for the assimilation of Danish Americans using a difference-indifferences setting. Following the ordination of a divisive religious figure in 1883, this otherwise small and homogeneous group split into rival Lutheran revivalist camps - so-called “Happy” and “Holy” Danes. The former sought the preservation of Danish culture and tradition, while the latter encouraged assimilation. We use data from the US census and Danish American church and newspaper archives, and find that..

How does violence in origin areas affect the educational outcomes of refugees in their destinations? Using administrative panel data, we find that heightened violence in the hometowns of Syrian students leads to improvements in their school outcomes in Türkiye. Turkish language and Math scores of refugee students improve, with larger impacts on Turkish scores. There is no impact on naturalized Syrian students. We observe positive spillovers on Turkish students. These findings suggest ongoing violence in refugee-origin areas reduces the prospect of returning home, and induces students to increase their integration effort by investing in education.

We investigate the extent to which asylum policies that aim to deter individuals from migrating irregularly in fact do so. We specifically consider effects of Germany's recent and high-profile asylum policy adjustments, which include accelerated asylum decision processes, the prospect of asylum processing outside of Europe, the introduction of a payment card to replace cash benefits, and an extended waiting period for native-level benefits. In order to estimate effects of these policy measures on irregular migration intent, we implement a conjoint experiment with 989 men aged 18–40 in four cities in Senegal, a population of most-likely migrants in a country where irregular migration to Eur..

Labour markets struggle to be inclusive, while diversity is increasing. This literature review examines labour market challenges faced by first- and second-generation migrants in Belgium. We systematically review articles published between 2010 and 2023 in the Web of Science Core Collection to delineate underlying mechanisms, associated solutions, policy recommendations and literature gaps. The literature reveals that individuals with a migration background generally experience poorer labour market outcomes than natives. These outcomes vary based on specific origin and gender and persist from the first into the second generation. The mechanisms underlying these poorer outcomes are discrimina..

Can lowering school starting age promote equality of opportunities and reduce the achievement gaps between pupils? We provide evidence on the heterogeneous (positional) effects on early school performance of two mandatory schooling reforms in Norway specifically aimed at reducing achievement gaps based on family background and immigrant status. Whereas the first reform reduced the school starting age from seven to six, the second changed the first-year curriculum from a play-oriented kindergarten pedagogy to a learning-oriented school pedagogy. We apply repeated simple difference models to evaluate the two reforms based on high-quality administrative register data, using children's grade poi..

Residency by Investment programs have become integral to contemporary migration policies, providing a distinct pathway for individuals to acquire a new legal status through financial investments. In this paper, we study the extent to which "golden visas" impact real estate housing markets. Using the population of transactions records from 2007 to 2019, we analyse the introduction of the Golden Visa Program in Portugal in 2012. We first present descriptive bunching evidence around the €500, 000 threshold, revealing potential price distortions. Merging the transaction data to property tax records, we then conduct a difference-in-differences analysis assessing the golden visa impact on the di..

The complex relationship between climate shocks, migration, and adaptation hampers a rigorous understanding of the heterogeneous mobility outcomes of farm households exposed to climate risk. To unpack this heterogeneity, the analysis combines longitudinal multi-topic household survey data from Nigeria with a causal machine learning approach, tailored to a conceptual framework bridging economic migration theory and the poverty traps literature. The results show that pre-shock asset levels, in situ adaptive capacity, and cumulative shock exposure drive not just the magnitude but also the sign of the impact of agriculture-relevant weather anomalies on the mobility outcomes of farming households..

The inflow of refugees and their subsequent integration can be an important challenge for both the refugees themselves and the host society. Policy interventions can improve the lives and economic success of refugees and of their communities. In this paper, we review the socioeconomic integration policy interventions focused on refugees and the evidence surrounding them. We also highlight some interesting topics for future research and stress the need to rigorously evaluate their effectiveness and implications for the successful integration of refugees.

We formulate a rule for allocating asylum seekers that is based on the social preferences of the native workers of the receiving countries. To derive the rule, we construct for each country a social welfare function, SWF, where the social welfare of a population is determined both by the population's aggregate absolute income and by the population's aggregate relative income. In a utilitarian manner, we combine the social welfare functions of the countries into a global social welfare function, GSWF. We look for the allocation that yields the highest value of the GSWF. We draw on assumptions that pertain to the manner in which the asylum seekers join the income distribution of the native wor..

"This study investigates the multifaceted factors influencing immigrants’ naturalization intentions, with a primary focus on legal requirements and the implementation of naturalization laws. It distinguishes between different immigrant groups, such as refugees, European Union (EU) citizens, and non-EU citizens. Employing a vignette experiment among immigrants in a large-scale representative data in Germany, the research empirically analyzes the effects of liberalizing legal requirements and the effects of more inclusive naturalization procedure on intentions to acquire German citizenship. This comparison, both for current versus liberalized requirements and less versus more inclusive natur..

Return migration is important, but how many migrants leave and who is poorly understood. This paper proposes a new method for estimating return migration rates using aggregated repeated cross-sectional data, treating the number of migrants in a group who arrived in a particular year as an unobserved fixed effect, and the observed number (including, importantly, observed zeroes) in the arrival or subsequent years as observations from a Poisson distribution. Compared to existing methods, this allows us to estimate return rates for many more migrant groups, allowing more in-depth analysis of the factors that influence return migration rates. We apply this method to US data and find a decreasing..

We study infectious diseases in a spatial epidemiology model with forward-looking individuals who weigh disease environments against economic opportunities when moving across regions. This endogenous mobility allows regions to share risk and health resources, resulting in positive epidemiological externalities for regions with high R0s. We develop the Normalized Hat Algebra to analyze disease and mobility dynamics. Applying our model to US data, we find that cross-state mobility controls that hinder risk and resource sharing increase COVID-19 deaths and decrease social welfare. Conversely, by enabling "self-containment" and "self-healing, " endogenous mobility reduces COVID-19 infections by ..

Across national contexts, residents of ethnically diverse areas tend to be more supportive toward immigration. Yet the mechanism behind this trend is not fully understood. Do immigrant attitudes impact residential location or does residential location impact immigrant attitudes? In this paper we draw on panel data from the British Election Study to assess the extent to which the correlation between attitudes towards immigration and ethnic diversity is driven by residential sorting or contextual effects. First, to test residential sorting, we explore how patterns of mobility into and out of residential areas based on levels of ethnic diversity relate to prior attitudes towards immigration. Se..

This paper studies the impact of skilled immigration policy frictions in the United States on technology-intensive firms by age cohorts. We use firm-level data and a general equilibrium model with endogenous firm entry and exit. The empirical results show that skilled immigration policy frictions directly influence young firm dynamics in technology-intensive sectors by affecting firm survival. Our general equilibrium model incorporates skilled foreign labor and immigration policy frictions that mimic the H-1B policy and matches the age distribution of firms in high-technology sectors, showing also that increased entry of younger firms leads to a greater exit of older firms.

The last decade and a half have seen a dramatic increase in the outsourcing and offshoring of asylum processing and resettlement to countries in the Global South. This article advances a new theoretical framework to examine the surge in new asylum regimes worldwide. Drawing on ethnographic fieldwork in several externalised asylum sites and specifically in Guatemala, it looks at these recent developments through the lens of ‘resource frontiers.’ Merging criti-cal political ecological approaches on resource frontiers with research on migration exter-nalisation, I argue that ‘asylum frontiers’ are the social spaces connected to the exploration and development of a resource sector that e..

The macroeconomic studies that assess the contribution of international remittances to the origin countries of migrants use a different definition of remittances than the microeconomic literature that examines the impact at the household and community levels. This study overcomes this difference in definition by integrating household expenditure data into the input-output analysis. Using the 2018 Family Income and Expenditure Surveys (FIES) of the Philippines, we find that remittance-financed household consumption and investment totaled ₱742.2 billion ($14.1 billion) and contributed 3.5% of the country’s total output, 3.4% of gross domestic product (GDP), and 3.7% of total employment in ..

To protect native workers, discussions on immigration restrictions have emerged. However, limited studies have analyzed the economic impact of such restrictions on native workers. Past literature demonstrated a small effect of immigration restrictions on the labor outcomes of native workers, attributing it to capital substitution. Notably, this analysis focused on restrictions on low-skilled immigrants. Past literature of theoretical analysis highlighted that labor scarcity affects labor outcomes differently based on the substitutability of labor and capital. Anticipating a distinct impact, this paper examined the restriction of skilled immigrants exploiting the H-1B visa restrictions after ..

Internal migration in the United States has declined substantially over the past several decades, which has important implications for individual welfare, macroeconomic adjustments, and other key outcomes. This paper studies the determinants of internal migration and how they have changed over time. We use administrative data from the IRS covering the universe of bilateral moves between every Commuting Zone (CZ) in the country over a 23 year period. This data is linked to information on local wage levels and home prices, and we estimate bilateral migration determinants in rich regression specifications that contain CZ-pair fixed effects. Consistent with theoretical predictions, results show ..

We study out-group biases in attitudes toward refugees, and the effect of European Union (EU) immigration policies on these views, using an online survey experiment including 4, 087 Italian participants. We assess attitudes using donations to a randomly assigned group: Italian victims of violence or refugees fleeing wars in Ukraine or African countries. We also employ a novel measure, the share donated in cash. While donations indicated less support for African and Ukrainian refugees compared to Italian victims, the cash measure revealed a stronger prejudice against distant out-groups, with participants giving African refugees a smaller proportion of cash donations. This result was mainly dr..

This paper explores the complex interplay between technology adoption, specifically robotisation and digitalisation, and international migration within the EU and other advanced economies, including Australia, the UK, Japan, Norway and the US, over the period 2001-2019. Utilising a gravity model approach grounded in neoclassical migration theory, the study analyses how technological advancements influence migration flows. It examines two key technological variables the extent of digitalisation, represented by ICT capital per person employed, and the adoption of industrial robots, measured by the stock of robots per thousand workers. The research uniquely integrates these technological factor..

How does immigration enforcement affect public safety? Heightened enforcement could reduce crime by deterring and incapacitating immigrant offenders or, alternatively, increase crime by discouraging victims from reporting offenses. We study the U.S. Secure Communities program, which expanded interior enforcement against unauthorized immigrants. Using national survey data, we find that the program reduced the likelihood that Hispanic victims reported crimes to police and increased the victimization of Hispanics. Total reported crimes are unchanged, masking these opposing effects. We provide evidence that reduced Hispanic reporting is the key driver of increased victimization. Our findings und..